How Global Conflict Empties Kashmiri Wallets

The distant sound of bombs falling in the Middle East may seem far removed from Kashmir's daily life, but the economic shockwaves have already reached the valley's markets, kitchens and petrol pumps.

In just three weeks since the US-Israeli war on Iran began, the price of LPG has risen by Rs 60, petrol prices are under upward pressure, and the cost of essential commodities — from cooking oil to rice — has begun its upward climb. For a region already grappling with high unemployment and seasonal economic disruptions, the timing could not be worse.

Kashmir's economy is uniquely vulnerable to such global disruptions. The valley imports virtually all its fuel, a large proportion of its food, and most manufactured goods from outside the region. Any disruption in supply chains — whether caused by highway closures, weather events or global conflicts — is felt immediately and acutely.

The current crisis has hit small businesses particularly hard. Restaurant owners report that the cost of running commercial kitchens has risen sharply due to LPG price hikes. Transport operators say rising diesel costs are eating into already thin margins. And shopkeepers note that consumers are cutting back on discretionary spending.

"People are buying less of everything. They come, look at the prices, and leave. Eid shopping this year has been the worst in recent memory," said a garment trader in Srinagar's Lal Chowk.

Economists warn that the worst may be yet to come. If the conflict persists and oil prices remain elevated, India may be forced to pass on more of the cost to consumers, leading to a broader inflationary spiral that would disproportionately affect regions like Kashmir.

The lesson of this crisis is not new but bears repeating: Kashmir's economic resilience requires structural reforms that reduce its dependence on external supply chains — from investing in local food production to developing renewable energy sources.